Greenhouse vegetable market results 2017

https://www.site/press-centr/novosti-rynka/ogurcy-tomaty-2017/

2018-01-03 12:37:00

At the end of 2017, the volume of domestic cucumber production may well reach the level of 580-600 thousand tons, while imports remain at last year’s level. High rates of growth in greenhouse tomato production continue.

• despite a significant increase in cucumber production volumes, the price in the off-season remains at last year’s level;
• high growth rates of greenhouse tomato production remain;
• the next changes in the geography of imports of tomatoes and cucumbers into the Russian Federation: the lifting of the ban on imports from Turkey, the annual increase in the share of Azerbaijani products in the structure of tomato imports.

Until 2016, the main emphasis of domestic greenhouse companies was on greenhouse cucumbers as the most profitable crop. This choice was determined by the peculiarities of its production (the profitability of light-cultured cucumber production reached 40%), as well as the departure of European cucumbers from the Russian market, then Turkish ones. Last year, Russian industrial greenhouses produced 524 thousand tons of cucumber. At the end of this year, the volume of domestic production may well reach the level of 580-600 thousand tons, while imports remain at last year’s level with a small increase of 5-8% (or 6-10 thousand tons), writes.

Up until 2015, a quarter of imported cucumbers were of Turkish origin. Last year, Turkey disappeared from the statistics, and in mid-October this year the ban on cucumber supplies was lifted.

Thus, based on the results of 2017, we can obtain the following results for the greenhouse cucumber market: an increase in the total market capacity (greenhouse + imported) by 10%, an increase in production in industrial greenhouses by 11%, an increase in imports by 7%.

Last year marked the start of a significant increase in the production of greenhouse tomatoes (+17%). This year the growth continued, it is planned to add another 16% and reach a level of 290 thousand tons.

After a long pause in the official supplies of Turkish tomatoes to the Russian market (January 1, 2016 - October 31, 2017), from November 1, products began to be imported into the country again, but with some restrictions (the Ministry of Agriculture introduced a quota of 50 thousand tons, Rosselkhoznadzor is forming list of inspected Turkish enterprises, products from which are allowed to be imported).

Thus, based on the results of 2017, we can obtain the following results for the greenhouse tomato market: an increase in the total market capacity (greenhouse + imported) by 15%, an increase in production in industrial greenhouses by 16%, an increase in imports (taking into account the revaluation of “gray” imports) by 15%.

It is worth noting that such an increase in production (11% for cucumber and 16% for tomato) this year can be achieved largely due to the commissioning of capacities for the production of light culture of cucumber and tomato. According to the Russian Greenhouses Association, last year the share of greenhouses equipped with an additional lighting system was about 14%. This year it could reach 20%. Production is growing, but high variability of seasonal prices still remains. So, in the summer of this year, the wholesale price of a kilogram of cucumber dropped to 20-30 rubles/kg, and in December it already reaches 120-130 rubles/kg, and in some regions even 150-160 rubles/kg.

If we talk about the near future, the main external factors influencing the further development of the greenhouse vegetable market can be: firstly, the official return of Turkish products to the market in volumes close to the previous ones, and secondly, the emerging economic situation in the country as a whole. Looking at the situation in the markets in 2015, we see that Turkey competed precisely on the price factor. At the same time, starting from 2014, there was almost no growth in real disposable income of the population, and after the 4th quarter, a downward trend was firmly established in the indicator.

Read also

Average per capita consumption of dairy products, vegetables and melons remains below the norm recommended by the Ministry of Health. Russians consume meat and meat products, potatoes in sufficient quantities, and bread products and sugar - above the norm.

Indoor vegetable production continued its dynamic growth and amounted to 1.1 million tons. In 2018, domestic tomato production increased almost one and a half times. The area of ​​winter greenhouses increased by 10% over the year.

A decrease in the country's gross grain harvest by 17% compared to the historically record harvest of 2017. This is due to a reduction in harvesting areas and lower grain yields in a number of regions due to weather factors...

2018 was marked by new records for oilseeds, as well as in the fat and oil industry. Despite the decline in the sunflower harvest in 17/18, the industry managed to update the record for sunflower oil exports, which reached 2.3 million tons (+6% compared to last season). Russia continues to strengthen its position in the markets of the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, etc.) and North Africa (Egypt, Sudan, etc.), and also competes with Ukraine for the Chinese market. In addition to sunflower oil, the following areas showed record levels: soybean export - 892 thousand tons (2.4 times higher than in the 16/17 season), rapeseed export - 322 thousand tons (4.4 times higher), export soybean oil - 566 thousand tons (+9%), rapeseed oil exports - 340 thousand tons (+43%)...

Absolutely record level of production of grains, wheat and legumes: 134.1 MMT (+13.5 MMT compared to the 2016/17 season), 85.8 MMT (+12.5), 4.3 MMT (+1.3), respectively. The growth in production was ensured not so much due to extensive development in the number of areas, but, to a greater extent, due to a phenomenal increase in yield: 2.8 t/ha (+10%) of grain in total, wheat 3.1 t/ha (+16% ), legumes 1.9 t/ha (+15%).

Due to abnormally cold weather in the central regions of Russia, farmers are suffering losses - by mid-summer, a decrease in the yield of a number of agricultural crops was recorded. In this regard, an inflationary surge occurred in June. Experts believe that prices may continue to rise in the coming months, which are traditionally characterized by deflation. In this case, the Central Bank's forecast of annual inflation of 4% will not come true. DW found out which essential products should be expected to rise in price.

Inflation accelerates due to bad weather

In the first five months of 2017, inflation in Russia slowed down, significantly approaching the Bank of Russia target. “This was facilitated by the low rate of recovery of aggregate demand, as well as the strengthening of the ruble,” reports the monitoring of the economic situation, prepared by RANEPA jointly with the Gaidar Institute.

However, in June, consumer price growth accelerated sharply, amounting to 4.4% compared to June 2016. The rise in inflation caused a surge in food prices due to unfavorable weather conditions, the authors of the monitoring note.

In general, in June, food prices increased by 1% compared to May (for comparison, in June 2016, by only 0.1%), and the increase in prices for fruits and vegetables reached 8.3% compared to May (in June 2016, a negative value - minus 1%). “The acceleration of food inflation began in April 2017 as last year’s crop reserves were exhausted,” the document says.

Under attack "borscht set", strawberries and grain

Forecasters do not give clear forecasts as to whether truly summer weather will return to central Russia in the near future. As Anatoly Tikhonov, head of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security at the Higher School of Corporate Management at RANEPA, told DW, if there are not enough hot daylight hours, prices will continue to rise.

“In the central part of Russia, where it rains and there is no sun, the harvest does not ripen. The blow will be dealt to grain crops, the collection of which will be difficult. Open-ground fruit and vegetable products, in particular, strawberries and almost all components of the so-called “borscht set” will also suffer: potatoes, onions, carrots, cabbage,” says the expert. Inflation, according to him, will rise quite noticeably, since the fruit and vegetable group makes up 18% of the food basket.

The Potato Union of Russia is already recording an increase in wholesale and retail prices for potatoes. As Tatyana Gubina, head of the union's staff, told DW, a decrease in harvest has already been recorded in the Central Federal District, the Volga region, and the Northwestern District. “Planting areas have been reduced almost everywhere, the growing season is uneven,” states Gubina. There will be few good products, as she puts it, because “they physiologically cannot withstand such water pressure and such temperatures.” This affected wholesale prices. If in June 2016 a kilogram of potatoes cost about 15 rubles, then in June of this year - from 30 rubles.

How retail prices have changed in Moscow

Retail prices have also increased. According to the Potato Union, the average price of Russian-made washed potatoes in Moscow chain stores increased from June 2016 to June 2017 by 43.2% - from 44 to 63 rubles per kilogram, unwashed - by 36.8% (from 38 to 63 rubles per kilogram). 52 rubles). A kilogram of washed carrots rose in price from 52 to 58 rubles, unwashed ones - fell in price from 45 to 39 rubles, cabbage increased in price from 31 to 56 rubles per kilo, packaged onions - from 45 to 57 rubles, unpacked - from 31 to 40 rubles.

According to Tatyana Gubina, one of the reasons for the rise in prices is that producers are forced to raise selling prices in order to somehow compensate for losses associated with crop failure. Following manufacturers and wholesalers, intermediaries and retailers also raise prices. According to Anatoly Tikhonov, the southern regions are actively harvesting crops and sending them to the central ones, but resellers take advantage of the fact that logistics centers are not sufficiently developed and increase prices.

Due to the abundance of water, milk may become more expensive

A crop failure can also have a ricochet effect on such a food category as dairy products. “In a number of regions, the problem of procurement of feed is very acute. There are farms that have only a quarter of what is needed today. The situation is difficult, some farms are already thinking about getting rid of livestock. If they are now put under the knife, it will take enough to restore the livestock for a long time,” Tikhonov sounds the alarm.

Context

So, according to the expert, you need to look not only at grains, vegetables and fruits, but also at other categories of goods. “If there is a decrease in the number of livestock, there will be less milk, which is now in short supply. That is, it will also rise in price. By the way, for milk we are still far from achieving the target indicators of the food security doctrine,” notes the head of the RANEPA Agribusiness Center.

There is no centralized government assistance

To overcome the difficulties that have arisen, state support is needed, experts point out. “We need a unified policy, unified standards, carryover reserves, strategic plan funds. We do not have this in a centralized form,” Tikhonov complains. Tatyana Gubina states that there are still targeted forms of support.

“There are forms of support such as recognizing the situation as an emergency. But now this mechanism is used only in certain areas of the Moscow region. The emergency status allows us to adjust payments to banks and schedules for supplying products to networks and intermediaries,” Gubina explained. In general, in her opinion, the state invites farmers to take care of themselves and insure themselves in advance. “But this is not a very working mechanism, so in the vegetable sector, rarely anyone insures their products,” concluded Tatyana Gubina.

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The article will help you find out what will happen to prices for goods and services in 2019, what is the reason for the increase in prices for alcohol, food, and travel. And whether changes will depend on regional location.

What will become more expensive from New Year 2019 and what will prices increase? Full detailed list

What will become more expensive from January 1, 2019? According to many economists, in an unstable economic situation, prices for many goods and services will continue to rise. Russians need to know what will rise in price from January 1, 2019 in order to effectively plan their family budget. In most cases, this is due to an accelerated rate of inflation, as well as increased taxes and fees.

Reasons for increasing gasoline prices 92, 95. The cost of fuel in other fears of the world. Graphs of continuous price growth, cost in Moscow, in the Russian Federation as a whole. Wait for 120 rubles. per liter of gasoline.

In 2019, prices for many goods and services are expected to increase. The changes will affect prices for fuel, food, alcohol, and utilities. However, the cost of some categories of goods and services will remain unchanged. About what influenced prices in 2019. Are the changes the same in the regions of Russia? We will tell you in this article whether it is worth saving on the necessary things.

Article outline:

1. Increase in food prices.
2. Increase in car prices.

3. Increase in gasoline prices.

4. Raising tariffs by Rostelecom.
5. Increase in prices for housing and communal services.

6. Increase in prices for vodka and alcohol.

7. Increasing the cost of Microsoft products.
8. Reasons for price changes.

In 2019, tariffs for housing and communal services will increase in Russia. They will be indexed twice: first by 1.7% in January, then by another 2.4% in July. This is the national average; in some regions, tariff growth in July will be higher or lower.

In some regions of the country, the price of public transport will increase. For example, in Moscow, one trip on the metro using the Troika card will cost not 36, but 38 rubles. Travel on ground transport in Volgograd in the new year will rise in price by 5 rubles - from 20 to 25 rubles.

The authorities also increased the minimum cost of a bottle of alcohol: vodka - from 205 to 215 rubles, champagne - from 164 to 202 rubles, cognac - from 371 to 388 rubles, brandy - from 293 to 307 rubles.

Food prices will also increase. The Izvestia newspaper, with reference to the Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation, provides calculations on the possible rise in price of socially significant goods in the coming year: pork, bread, sugar, milk and eggs.

Increase in food prices

According to experts from the Rossiyskaya Gazeta publication, food inflation in 2019 should decrease by 9%.

Meat

The director of the Institute of Agricultural Marketing predicts a decline in prices for poultry and pork by 2-4%. As for beef, expectations are less joyful. If in 2018 the price for this type of meat increased by 20%. This year an increase of 12-14% is expected.

Vegetables

Potato prices are also expected to rise. This is explained by the fact that in order to prevent spoilage of vegetables. They have been selling them to other countries since the fall. Not all vegetable farms have storage facilities. Adapted for long-term preservation of vegetables, especially during the cold period. Thus, when one part of the potato was sold at the initial stage of the harvest. And the second one was damaged due to poor storage conditions. The price for the remaining quantity is increased.

It turns out that to obtain the planned profit, fewer potatoes were sold. But at a higher price. To avoid such situations, rational storage and sale of products should be organized. This primarily has a negative impact on the lives of Russians. As a result, both sellers and buyers will not suffer losses.

However, the scheme described in the previous sentence only works in the specified example. Most likely, the supplier will not lower, but increase the price. And it will raise the indicated figure in order to reimburse the costs of modernization as soon as possible. Having solved the problem with rational storage and minimized the percentage of product spoilage,

Milk and dairy products

Milk and dairy products will rise in price this year, but not by much. Price increases in this industry are projected to increase prices from 3% to 7%. The range of dairy and fermented milk products is also expected to expand.

According to statistics, in 2018 there was a decrease in demand for cheese - by 15% and for fermented milk products - by 1.2%. A similar situation is expected this year. There will be no global price increases in the first half of 2019, at least according to official data.

Increase in car prices

Along with the growth, the cost of cars also increases. Moreover, this situation is developing unilaterally. When the rate drops even a little, sellers don’t even think about reducing the price. Thus, one cannot expect a decrease in the cost of cars. We can only hope that the rise and rise in prices and costs will not grow too rapidly.

New car prices

As for domestically produced cars, there will be no reduction in prices. AvtoVAZ will only continuously raise prices. Foreign cars can become cheaper only if there is a long-term and noticeable depreciation of the foreign currency.

Another factor that has a significant impact on the growth of domestic automotive products is the substitution of imports of foreign-made goods.

The approximate increase in demand for cars will be about 10%. Prices will increase by 2-5% from January 2019. This applies to both domestic and foreign cars.

The Kommersant.ru website posted information regarding the increase in car prices. However, it is only predictive in nature. There is no 100% guarantee of the indicated increase ranges yet.

The following changes are expected:

1. The AvtoVAZ model range will undergo a price increase of 3%.
2. The exception will be Lada Vesta. The cost of this model will increase within 10,000 rubles.
3. The cost of UAZ cars will rise by 2-3%.
4. The cost of Hyundai and Land Rover cars will increase by 5%.
5. Volvo will raise prices on SUVs and passenger cars produced in 2016. The increase range will be from 3% to 5%.
6. The cost of Skoda cars will increase by 3%.

Reasons for increasing car prices in 2019:

• Transition to the Euro-5 environmental standard.
• Foreign exchange rate growth.
• Import substitution.

Prices for used cars

According to experts and data for 2018, the demand for used cars is expected to increase. According to preliminary estimates, it will increase by about 10-15%. At the moment, it is impossible to indicate the exact percentage of price increases, because it depends on many factors.

For example, last year there was unprecedented activity among buyers from Kazakhstan. Initially inexpensive used cars, after the demand for them increased day by day, increased significantly in price. That is why external factors influencing the increase in the cost of cars in Russia cannot be denied.

Increase in prices per liter of gasoline AI 92, 95

According to information provided by the Rossiyskaya Gazeta publication, the reason for the increase in gasoline prices in 2018 is new excise taxes on fuel. The cost of excise duty for Euro-5 gasoline was 7,530 rubles per ton. Her growth amounted to 2000 rubles. The cost of fuel class "Euro-4" is 10,500 rubles. It increased by 3,200 rubles. The excise tax on diesel fuel was 4,150 rubles per ton.

It is too early to predict the absolute price of gasoline for 2019. from March to June. Just when the sowing season is underway! It is not yet known how much fuel prices will rise. The price forecast for 2019 is not the same from various sources. Therefore, we do not undertake to guess. As a rule, fuel price increases occur in the spring and summer. In autumn and winter, on the contrary, they tend to decrease slightly.

Rostelecom tariff increase

The Federal Antimonopoly Service approved an increase in the prices of Rostelecom PJSC tariffs for local telephone connections. The maximum price indexation threshold should not exceed 5.5% for the population and 3.9% for organizations.

Tariffs for intrazonal and long-distance calls, as well as the use of a subscriber line, will not change for all categories of consumers. The changes will not affect the maximum level of payment for the basic volume of local telephone connections with a combined tariff plan.

The cost of installing telephones for individuals is expected to decrease by 5.8%. The cost for legal entities will remain unchanged. In 2018, the decline in revenue from fixed-line communications fell by 9% (75.1 billion rubles). Therefore, Rostelecom does not seek significant increases in cent tariffs.

Increase in prices for housing and communal services

An increase in prices for housing and communal services tariffs in 2019 is inevitable. The Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation has approved the maximum level of tariff indexation for the current year for the regions. Its range was from 1% to 7.5% compared to the previous year. However, the final decision remains with the regional energy commissions. And according to the decisions published to date, the indexation of electricity tariffs planned from July 1, 2019 will significantly exceed the 7.5% figure that was announced by the FAS.

At the beginning of the new year, tariffs for housing and communal services are planned to be increased in 2 stages. The Ministry of Economic Development came to this decision. From January 1, the cost of utilities will increase by 1.7%, and from July 1 of next year - by another 2.4%. The rise in prices for services at the beginning of the year was due to an increase in the VAT rate, although many utility companies and management companies are not payers of this tax. Russians will feel the first powerful blow to their finances starting in the new year, as prices will rise at the height of the heating season. An additional column will appear on your bills for garbage. This tariff will be calculated depending on the number of residents registered in the premises. On average, a family of 3-4 people will have to pay 200-250 rubles for garbage.

Electricity cost

The increase in electricity prices in Russia in 2019 will affect almost every region of the country.

For example, in the capital, a single-rate tariff, which is differentiated by three zones of the day, will increase by 15%. The cost of a kilowatt-hour in the half-peak zone will increase by 14.9% and amount to 5.32 rubles, in the peak zone - by 14.87% and will reach 6.41 rubles, and in the night zone - by 14.7% and will be equal to 1.64 rubles . The one-rate tariff without differentiation by day zones will increase by 7% and amount to 5.38 rubles for consumers in Moscow. The exception will be the Novomoskovsky and Troitsky administrative districts. Such data was provided by the Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation.

In the Republic of Adygea and the Krasnodar Territory, the tariff per kilowatt-hour in the daytime zone will increase by 9.4% and amount to 4.77 rubles. The single-rate tariff without differentiation by day zones will increase by 3.9% and will increase in the day zone to 4.6 rubles per kWh, and in the night zone - to 1.18 rubles.

From July 1 of this year, stepped tariffs for electricity for the population will come into force. The Ministry of Energy has prepared a bill. According to which, at the minimum tariff it will be possible to pay only 150 kWh. Subsequent consumed electricity up to the 600 kWh threshold will cost 12% more. Going beyond this norm, consumers will have to pay the amount using an increasing factor of 1.52. There is a banal increase in electricity prices.

According to estimates by the Ministry of Energy, 73% of Russians fall into the category with consumption of up to 150 kWh. The category up to 600 kWh includes 25% of citizens. Accordingly, only 2% of consumers are included in the third category, with electricity consumption of more than 600 kWh, but they will have to pay 52% more than the established base tariff.

Also this year, a tariff for “country houses” will be introduced, which is a fixed payment for the maintenance of electrical networks. It will not depend on the volume of electrical energy used. The bill provides for a subscription fee of 20 rubles per month with subsequent indexation according to the level of inflation.

Cost of thermal energy

As in the case of electricity, indexation of tariffs will not be uniform throughout the country. The maximum increase will occur in Moscow - 7.5%. In the Kamchatka Territory, Yakutia and St. Petersburg, tariffs will increase by 6.5%. The minimum growth will be noted in the Altai Territory - 3.7%, the Novosibirsk Region - 3.5% and North Ossetia - 3%. These indicators relate to the cost of thermal energy, hot water and sanitation.

The tariff increase will occur in the second half of the year. Exact indicators will be established at the regional level.

Gas cost

The Government of the Russian Federation has decided that gas tariffs for the population should increase by 8.5%, for industrial enterprises - by 7.5%. In previous periods, the cost for the population was lower than for enterprises. That is why, for the purpose of equalization, the Government decided on an uneven increase.

The indicated price increase applies to the maximum wholesale prices for all constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Determination of retail prices is the responsibility of local authorities.

The maximum wholesale price in the Moscow region in 2018 was 3,426 thousand rubles per 1 thousand cubic meters. The average cost for industrial enterprises was 4,053 thousand rubles per 1 thousand cubic meters.

It turns out that the wholesale price of gas in 2019 will increase by 291.2 rubles. For industrial consumers, with an indexation of 7.5%, the cost will increase by 303.97 rubles.

It is worth noting that in 2018, the problem of overdue gas payments became apparent. According to Gazprom Mezhregiongaz LLC, as of November 1, 2018, consumer debt amounted to 146.6 billion rubles. From January 1 to November, the debt increased by 15.4%, which amounts to 19.6 billion rubles. In 2015, during this period, growth was only 2.8% (3.3 billion rubles). Most of the debt falls on the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District.

Increase in the cost of vodka, alcohol

Representatives of large trade organizations assume that due to the collapse of the ruble, the cost of imported alcohol will increase and the price increase will be at least 15-20%.

President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin spoke out against increasing prices for alcoholic products, explaining his position by saying that due to the unavailability of products of proper quality, citizens will begin to use surrogate. He also added that the most important ways to combat drunkenness should be sports and culture.

Increased cost of Microsoft products

Price increases for Microsoft products are expected from the first months of this year. First of all, the cost of software will increase. The estimated price increase range is 19-25%. Note that at the beginning of 2018 an increase of 30% was already made.

Reasons for price changes in 2019

As a result, the cost of goods and services increases. First of all, products imported from other countries become more expensive. Further increases apply to “local” goods. Many citizens are not only surprised, but also extremely outraged by this fact. In order to dispel doubts and misunderstandings, let’s figure out why prices are increasing in Russia in 2019.

The increase in prices for foreign-made goods is logical and understandable. After all, these products are purchased for dollars, euros and other internationally recognized currencies. Even if the foreign seller does not raise the price of the product, you will still have to pay more for it.

Simple example:

Unit cost is $10. At the exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as of October 22, 2015 (62.63 rubles per 1 US dollar), for 50 units the buyer will pay 31,315 rubles = $10*50 units*62.63 rubles.

On January 22, 2016, the cost of 1 US dollar was 83.59 rubles. It turns out that the cost of 50 units of $10 each will be 41,795 rubles = $10*50 units*83.59 rubles.

As you can see, the seller's cost remains the same, but the buyer will have to pay more as a result. There is a banal increase in prices.

Despite the fact that the largest share of goods is produced in our country, individual components can be supplied from abroad. Therefore, it would seem that “our” products are rising in price.

This rule also applies to agricultural products. For example, cattle were raised in one of the region's farms and ate local feed, but vitamins for them were supplied from other countries. This contributes to increased prices for meat and milk. The same can be said about rising grain prices. Agricultural farms give preference to foreign fertilizers and top dressing. Therefore, the final cost of products gradually increases.

Price increases across Russia are not uniform. And not for all product categories. Changes also depend on regional location. In some areas the cost of food will rise more significantly. In others - utilities, and in others - housing. To prevent the price increase from becoming too noticeable, you should approach budget planning as rationally as possible.

List of goods and services whose prices may increase from January 1, 2019

Petrol; Housing and communal services; Medical services; Medicines; Bread, confectionery; Milk, dairy products; Sugar; Meat; Most of the food is food; Cars; Appliances; Electronics; Transport services; Travel by public transport; Communication and Internet services.

List of goods whose price will increase

Government-approved list of goods subject to mandatory labeling. Compiled in order to reduce the turnover of counterfeit products. In total, the list included 10 groups of consumer goods. Each of which has its own deadline for introducing certification.

1. Tobacco products March 1
2. Shoes July 1
3. Perfume and eau de toilette December 1
4. Tires, pneumatic rubber tires, new December 1
5. Clothes (including work clothes and those made from genuine/composite leather) December 1
6. Women's and children's clothing for girls (blouses, hand-knitted blouses and machine knitwear) December 1
7. Men's and children's outerwear for boys - coats, windbreakers, short coats, jackets (including ski jackets) December 1
8. Bed, kitchen, table and toilet linen December 1
9. Women's and children's outerwear for girls - coats, short coats, windbreakers, jackets (including ski jackets) December 1
10. Cameras, photo flashes, photo lamps December 1

The article will help you find out news about pensions, about raising the retirement age, how much the pension will increase in 2019, whether there will be a recalculation of pensions, what civil servants and military pensioners can count on, and whether pensions will be canceled for working pensioners.

According to statistics, over the past 5 years, the quality of nutrition of Russians has improved - people began to spend more on food and eat in cafes more often. But will this trend continue in 2018? More and more media are saying that food prices will rise, but what kind of price jump should we expect and why is this happening.

Not only journalists, but also financial market experts predict an increase in the cost of products. The head of the Infoline analytical agency claims that there will not be record low inflation, as in 2017, because economic resources have already been exhausted. Officials also began to prepare Russians for a sharp rise in food prices. Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank, predicts that in 2018 inflation will be 3.5-4%, and in 2019 it will be even higher.

What causes the price jump

A significant increase in product prices is possible for several reasons. One of the main ones is the weakening of the national currency. Due to the political situation, the ruble is falling on the world market. In April 2018, the ruble fell against the dollar by 6.4% and against the euro by 6.9%. This is the biggest decline since 2015. The weakening of the ruble affects primarily goods imported from abroad, and we have a lot of such products, despite the import substitution program - tea, coffee, cocoa, chocolate, seafood, cheeses, alcohol, etc. In addition, sanctions imposed against Russian businessmen also negatively affect the economy.

The rise in prices also affects the rise in the cost of gasoline. If at the beginning of May 2018, AI-92 gasoline was sold at 36-37 rubles. for 1 liter, then at the beginning of June of the same year its cost was 40-41 rubles. The rise in fuel prices increases sowing costs for producers of grain and vegetable crops, which will affect the future price of the crop. In addition, direct costs for transportation across regions and the supply of products to stores have increased.

In addition, the authorities have finally decided to change the VAT rate - it will rise to 20% most likely in the second half of the year. Despite the fact that, according to the authorities, preferential taxation of 10% will remain on products, businesses as a whole will increase their expenses. Production costs will increase, which will also affect the cost of products.

May affect product prices and equipment costs. The Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed introducing new duties on the supply of industrial equipment from abroad. At the moment they are not taxed, but if the ministry's initiative is supported, the duty will range from 3% to 10%. This is done in order to stimulate the Russian manufacturer, but industry representatives claim that similar equipment is not produced in the Russian Federation. Such technical equipment is used not only in dairies, but also in the confectionery, meat and baking industries.

What kind of promotion should I expect?

So, let's try to figure out to what extent political and economic events will affect the rise in food prices in stores.

Vegetables and fruits

Vegetables will rise in price several times a year. At the beginning of 2018, there was a seasonal jump in the cost of tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers - all those crops that do not grow in winter in Russia. Potatoes, on the contrary, will rise in price closer to summer, when the local harvest is already ending, and will fall slightly in the fall. Prices for carrots, onions, beets, and cabbage increased noticeably in May and June from 5% (onions) to 20% (cabbage). However, by autumn, with the harvest, the cost of these items will drop slightly. The cost of imported vegetables and fruits, such as avocados, mangoes, grapefruits, etc., will also rise by several percent. In the winter of 2018, fruits and vegetables will traditionally rise in price by 10-15%.

Cereals

The cost of grain crops, which are used for the production of cereals and bakery products, will increase by a maximum of 2-3%. Pricing policy in this industry is controlled by the state, because grains are a socially important product that makes up the bulk of the Russians’ diet. However, much depends on the harvest, which the authorities cannot influence – climate risks have an impact here.

Meat and fish

Beef and turkey meat will rise in price by 4-5%. This is due to production costs, which depend on the inflation rate. Chicken meat, according to analysts, will remain at the same level. However, according to citizens, already in the first half of 2018, chicken has risen in price more noticeably than all other types of meat (this survey was conducted by the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia). Fish is also rising in price and will grow by another 4% (at least). The same applies to seafood, which will rise in price by 4-5%.

Dairy

Milk and fermented milk products, which make up a large share of the daily diet of the average Russian (20-25%), will rise in price to approximately 5%. The exact increase has not yet been predicted. In addition to the rise in price of raw materials due to general inflation, an increase in the cost of equipment may also affect.

The good news is that the government controls the prices of certain types of goods. The cost of vegetable oil, sugar, bread and pasta should not increase significantly, as officials from the Ministry of Industry and Trade say.

Inflation in previous years

2017 has a record low price indexation rate of 2.5%. For comparison, here are inflation data for the last 6 years:

• 2011 — 6,1%
• 2012 — 6,6%
• 2013 — 6,4 %
• 2014 — 11,4%
• 2015 — 12,9%
• 2016 — 5,4%

If the food basket rises in price by 4% in 2018, as officials promise, this will be a fairly favorable outcome. However, the real cost of products usually turns out to be higher than the official inflation rate.